Content Transition scenario

1 content

1.1 multi-level criteria
1.2 multi-pattern criteria
1.3 multi-phase criteria

content

transition scenarios informed transition management concepts , theories uses basis contents. in particular, transition scenarios consider long time frames , both normative , explorative in nature. contents predominantly centred on following elements (sondeijker 2009; geels, f. w, 2002, kemp et al. 1998,):

multi-level criteria

multi-level criteria relate elements of change (weak signals) can identified in present structures occurring @ different levels of system. these provide opportunity recognise , investigate levers can used long run transitions. weak signals combined uncertain developments can produce appropriate climate structural change. anticipation of weak signals essential if development of scenarios beyond scope of current developments reached.

multi-pattern criteria

multi-pattern criteria describe interaction between actors , structure of system being analysed. includes action derived bottom-up initiatives built actor groups involved in niche-based innovation activities infiltrate , change dominant regimes. equally important actors across , between levels can support , further accelerate change. ensures practices , habits in system transformed through replacement of old dominant regime new desired future state.

multi-phase criteria

multi-phase criteria refer different timings of alternating stages involved in transition management: predevelopment phase, take-off phase, acceleration phase , stabilisation phase. nature , speeds of these phases inform character of transition highlighting importance of barriers , drivers identified. in take-off phase point of no return reached followed acceleration phase cultural, structural , practice changes occur visibly.