Scenario types Transition scenario

1 scenario types

1.1 first generation
1.2 second generation
1.3 third generation

scenario types

there various types of scenarios can used range of purposes , predominantly split between first, second , third generation scenarios.

first generation

first generation scenarios intended predict future accurately possible, instance extrapolating trends. examples of these scenarios weather predictions, forecasts wide range of topics such economic growth, population, building volume etc. predominantly based on quantitative / econometric extrapolation of trends. part based on qualitative trend watching methods (e.g. fashion).

second generation

second generation scenarios have more explorative character. scenarios can intended explore possibilities future, without pronouncing upon probability or desirability. scenarios can defined tool ordering alternative future environments in 1 s decision may played out (peter schwartz, 1991,). these scenarios based on presumption nobody can predict, , therefore should not try predict future. relevant discussions future succeed shifting question whether happen question if happens (arie de geus, 1998,). example of type of scenario developed shell (the shell scenario method).

third generation

third generation scenarios focus on long time spans , preferred societal systems normative , explorative in nature , reflective of structural , societal changes required in pursuing sustainability (sondeijker, 2009; edquist 2005,). these scenarios intended produce picture of future want. question is: want future like? , examples of these scenarios based, amongst others, on european awareness method , include use of energy in urban environments, sustainable production , consumption, , normative factor 4 studies. these scenarios devised based on claim scenarios active in first , second generation scenario methods cannot live challenge of imagining, contributing , preparing dynamic processes of transformative change. transitions complex interactions need system approaches define paths towards sustainable future , transition scenarios set address these concerns providing method handle these issues.