Scenario types Transition scenario
1 scenario types 1.1 first generation 1.2 second generation 1.3 third generation scenario types there various types of scenarios can used range of purposes , predominantly split between first, second , third generation scenarios. first generation first generation scenarios intended predict future accurately possible, instance extrapolating trends. examples of these scenarios weather predictions, forecasts wide range of topics such economic growth, population, building volume etc. predominantly based on quantitative / econometric extrapolation of trends. part based on qualitative trend watching methods (e.g. fashion). second generation second generation scenarios have more explorative character. scenarios can intended explore possibilities future, without pronouncing upon probability or desirability. scenarios can defined tool ordering alternative future environments in 1 s decision may played out (peter schwartz, 1991,). these scenarios based on presumption nobody can predict, , th...