Market Airbus A380

1 market

1.1 size
1.2 frequency , capacity
1.3 production
1.4 cost
1.5 secondary

market

singapore airlines, qantas, , emirates airbus a380s parked @ london heathrow


size

in 2000 global market forecast, airbus estimated demand 1,235 passenger large aircraft (vla), more 400 seats : 360 2009 , 875 2019. market estimated 2 decades @ more 1,700 airbus , 700 boeing since 1999-2000, including freighters. in 2006, industry analysts philip lawrence of aerospace research centre in bristol anticipated 880 sales 2025 airbus having conducted extensive , thorough market analysis of commercial aviation ever undertaken, justifying vla plans design a380 spoke-hub distribution paradigm while richard aboulafia of consulting teal group in fairfax, virginia anticipated 400 rise of mid-size aircraft , market fragmentation reducing them niche markets, making such plans unjustified in point-to-point transit model.

in 2007, airbus estimated demand 1,283 vla in following 20 years if airport congestion remains constant, 1,771 vlas if congestion increases, deliveries (56%) in asia-pacific, , 415 large, 120-tonne plus freighters. same period, boeing estimating demand 590 large (b747 or a380) passenger airliners , 630 freighters.

frequency , capacity

cathay pacific or singapore airlines need balance frequency , capacity. china southern struggled 2 years use a380s beijing , received boeing 787s in guangzhou based, can’t command premium unlike beijing or shanghai. in 2013, air france withdrew a380 services singapore , montreal , switched smaller aircraft.

in 2014, british airways replaced 3 777 flights between london , los angeles 2 a380 per day. emirates tim clark sees large potential asian a380-users, , criticised airbus marketing efforts. business travelers prefers more choices offered more frequencies, flying route multiple times on smaller aircraft rather once on large plane, united airlines observed a380 doesn t work relies on boeing 787s operating @ lower trip cost.

at a380 launch, europe-asia , transpacific routes used 747-400s @ low frequencies, since routes proliferated open skies , airlines downsized offer higher frequencies , more routes. huge capacity offered each flight erode yield : north america viewed 17% of market never materialised 747 replacement fifteen 747s remaining in passenger service in november 2017, transpacific routes timezones restrict potential frequency, consolidation changed networks , majors constrained capacity , emphasised daily frequencies business traffic midsize widebodies 787 extract higher yields, focusing on profits rather market share leaved asian carriers.

the 747 removed transatlantic flights 767 , transpacific market 777 : newer, smaller aircraft similar seat-mile costs have lower trip costs , allow more direct routes. cabin densification lower unit costs aggravate overcapacity.

production

in 2005, 270 sales necessary attain break-even , 751 expected deliveries internal rate of return outlook @ 19%, due disruptions in ramp-up leading overcosts , delayed deliveries, increased 420 in 2006. in 2010, eads cfo hans peter ring said break-even achieved 2015 when 200 deliveries projected. in 2012, airbus clarified aircraft production costs less sales price.

on 11 december 2014, airbus chief financial officer harald wilhelm hinted possibility of ending programme in 2018, disappointing emirates president tim clark. airbus shares fell down consequently. airbus responded protests playing down possibility a380 abandoned, instead emphasising enhancing airplane likelier scenario. on 22 december, jet break even, airbus ceo fabrice brégier ruled out cancelling it.

ten years after first flight, brégier said introduced ten years . while no longer losing money on each plane sold, airbus admits company never recoup $25 billion investment made in project.

airbus consistently forecast 1,400 vla demand on 20-year, still in 2017, , aimed secure 50% share, 700 units, delivered 215 aircraft in 10 years, achieving 3 produced per month not 4 per month target after ramp-up achieve more 350 , declining 0.5 month. boeing see vla market small retain in 2017 forecast, vp marketing randy tinseth don t believe airbus deliver rest of backlog.

richard aboulafia predicts 2020 final delivery, unpleasant losses due hubris, shoddy market analysis, nationalism , simple wishful thinking . in 2017, a380 fleet overtook passengers b747s, declining 740 aircraft when a380 launched in 2000 550 units @ a380 introduction in 2007, , around 200 ten years after while combined fleet of a380s , 747s passenger jumbos 430, market-share battle having shifted large single-aisles , 300-seat twin-aisles.

cost

as of 2016 list price of a380 us$432.6 million. negotiated discounts made actual prices lower, , industry experts questioned whether a380 project ever pay itself. first aircraft sold-and-leased-back singapore airlines in 2007 dr. peters $197 million. in 2016, iag s willie walsh said add few, found price of new aircraft outrageous , source them second-hand market.

airinsight estimates hourly cost @ $26,000, or around $50 per seat hour (for 520 seats), compares $44 per seat hour boeing 777-300er, , $90 per seat hour boeing 747-400 of november 2015. has large wing , tail surfaces allow stretch , high empty weight per seat, cost-per-seat advantage eroded, , a350-1000 , 777-9 match it.

secondary

as of mid-2015, several airlines have expressed interest in selling aircraft, partially coinciding expiring lease contracts aircraft. several a380 in service have been offered lease other airlines. suggestion has prompted concerns on potential new sales airbus, although these dismissed airbus coo john leahy stated used a380s not compete new a380s , stating second-hand market more interesting parties otherwise looking buy smaller aircraft such boeing 777.

after malaysia airlines unable sell or lease 6 a380s, decided refurbish aircraft seating 700 , transfer them subsidiary carrier religious pilgrimage flights. receive 6 a350s replace 6 a380s starting in december 2017, new subsidiary serve hajj , umrah market them, starting in third quarter of 2018 , expanded above 6 beyond 2020 2022. cabin have 36 business seats , 600 economy seats, 712-seat reconfiguration possible within 5 days. fleet chartered half year tourism industry cruise shipping , able operate next 40 years if oil prices stay low.

with 4 leased singapore airlines return them between october 2017 , march 2018, dr. peters fears weak aftermarket , considers scrapping them while on sale business jet conversion, on other hand airbus sees potential african airlines , chinese airlines, hajj charters , large gulf operators.

in august 2017, announced hi fly lease 2 used aircraft. portuguese acmi/charter airline use aircraft markets high capacity needed , airports slots scarce. first aircraft scheduled begin commercial operations during first quarter of 2018.

amedeo, a380 lessor , largest 22, leased emirates, wants find use them after lease expires 2022, , study if there demand wet lease them.